Involving DOD in the arguments over how to build a better wargame widget does not answer the questions they face from the whole of government.
In other words, as part of the decision calculus to solve a very hard problem, a sponsor was taking the time to weigh pushback from participants over whether an event met the right “checkboxes” to qualify as a wargame - instead of trying to solve their important problem. The analysts at the command later noted that the tabletop exercise had been renamed as an “event.” Asked why, they said they wanted to avoid an argument with participants over the definition of a wargame versus a tabletop exercise. As part of the proposed study plan, CNA recommended a large tabletop exercise. One command asked CNA for help with a big, underspecified problem.
In fact, raising methodology - how we wargame - with our DOD sponsors not only misses the point of defense analysis, it clouds our conversations with them.ĭebates over the definitions of a wargame can actually distract the military from more important questions. Do our wargames provide a window into a useful reality? If so, we’ve done our jobs correctly. Focusing on the methods internal to wargames risks missing the point of holding wargames at all.Īdding more layers of bureaucracy and quality control does not solve the problems of those seeking answers through wargames. This line of inquiry is valid, but it fails to consider the broader ecosystem in which wargaming resides. The question of whether the quality of defense wargaming is good enough - or indeed whether wargaming actually works - was most recently raised by two analysts, Yuna Wong and Garrett Heath. They need real, actionable recommendations on very hard, ill-defined problems, and they needed those solutions “yesterday.” Both defense analysts like myself and the DOD sponsors who use our services have limited time and attention to devote to finding the right solution. The officers who request CNA wargames are very rarely interested in the perfect methodology for their problems. Wargame sponsors do not need a better widget, a smoother experience, or a perfectly designed wargame.
Are the wargames conducted for the Department of Defense good enough? That question has been getting some attention lately.
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